As published on page A1 on November 11, 2005
NB politics poll < http://politicsnb.blogspot.com/ >
Michelle Hooton (Conservative) 12% 19
Dr. Ed. Doherty (Liberal) 86% 133
Dan Robichaud (NDP) 2% 3
155 votes total
My poll
Selection
Votes
Ed Doherty (Liberal) 74% 81
Michelle Hooton (PC) 20% 22
Dan Robichaud (NDP) 6% 6
Glen Jardine (Independant) 0% 0
By Lisa Hrabluk
Telegraph-Journal
Liberal candidate Ed Doherty could cruise to an easy victory in the Saint John Harbour byelection on Monday according to an exclusive Telegraph-Journal poll.
The poll, conducted by Corporate Research Associates, indicates Dr. Doherty has the support of 31 per cent of decided voters.
Conservative candidate Michelle Hooton and NDP candidate Dan Robichaud are essentially tied, with 10 per cent and nine per cent support respectively.
Independent candidate Glen Jardine received one per cent.
Undecided voters were at 34 per cent while 11 per cent refused to state intentions.
The poll interviewed 258 Saint John Harbour voters between Nov. 2 - the day after a candidate debate - and Nov. 9. It is considered accurate within plus or minus six percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
That means Dr. Doherty's support could be as high as 37 per cent or as low as 25 per cent while Ms. Hooton's support could swing between 16 and four per cent.
"Regardless of who turns out to vote, it looks like Mr. Doherty will win," said CRA president and chief executive officer Don Mills.
"It's kind of an open and closed case."
Premier Bernard Lord called a quick byelection in this riding on Oct. 15 following the resignation of NDP leader Elizabeth Weir, who held the riding for 14 years.
It isn't likely to stay with the New Democrats on Monday night, leaving the party and its new leader Allison Brewer without a seat in the Legislative Assembly.
"This is an NDP riding but the NDP haven't done very well here," said Mr. Mills.
"Elizabeth Weir was very high profile and popular and obviously that hasn't held."
Both the Conservatives and Liberals have held the riding when it was Saint John South. The current riding encircles the city's harbour and is home to some of Saint John's poorest citizens as well as upper middle class urbanites.
According to the poll, Dr. Doherty's support crosses all age groups and income levels, which should help him on Monday.
"His population goes up with age and voting intention goes up with age," said Mr. Mills.
"So his support is strong among the group most likely to vote."
Ms. Hooton's support also increases with age but when divided according to income, her largest pocket of support is with voters who earn over $75,000.
Mr. Robichaud's support tends to come from people earning less than $75,000 and from voters under 55.
However, in all categories both Ms. Hooton and Mr. Robichaud trail Dr. Doherty.
In addition to asking voters their preference, pollsters asked undecided voters if they were leaning to a candidate.
When those results were factored into the intentions of decided voters, Dr. Doherty's support rose to 53 per cent.
Ms. Hooton and Mr. Robichaud remain in a virtual tie, with 20 per cent and 19 per cent support, respectively. Mr. Jardine inched up to two per cent.
This snapshot of decided and leaning voters has a plus or minus of 7.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
"A lot of people tend to hook into the undecided and think what they might do," said Mr. Mills. "In our experience the problem with the undecided is they either tend not to vote or they vote along the same lines as decided voters."
Of those polled, 83 per cent indicated they would probably or definitely vote in Monday's byelection.
11 comments:
HAHAHHAHA.....I GUESS B. LORD WON'T BE SO QUICK TO CALL A SNAP BY ELECTION AGAIN.......HE DID IT HERE HOPING TO ROLL HOOTON TO FREDERICTON BEFORE THE DUST SETTLES.....WHILE IN SHEDIAC HE MADE THEM WAIT ALMOST A YEAR..SERVES HIM RIGHT, BUT THE RADIO NEWS THIS MORNING HAD THE PERCENTAGES HIGHER BUT DR. ED AHEAD.....
Don't assume anything until all votes are counted. Yes I hope Dr. Doherty wins. This poll maybe another way to get sympathy votes. Notice no ad that I could see in the paper fo Hooton but we got to see her photo opportunity with the Premier. Give them a little of what they have dishing out to us. They won't represent the average person; they will continue helping there corporate friends who can fend for themselves, thankyou.
Give Hooton the Booton.
Vote Dr. Ed Doherty, then after 18 months play your cards now is not the time to gamble.
Bernard Lord never learns. He is done. Finished. You cannot keep on hurting people through your incompetence and still remain premier.
BYE BYE BERNIE.
HAHAHA, this company doesn't even have a functioning website, EVEN Charles LeBlanc has a operating website, there is about as much credibility in this poll as truth in Paul Martain's mouth.
I bet they put ed so high so people who are going to vote for him don't feel they have to.
Yeah, that's pretty lousy statistical analysis. If 34% are undecided then obviously any candidate can add 34% onto their total, which would give them a win. It would be better if they actually conducted it just in the riding-many others no doubt simply aren't paying attention. Most people ignore politics completely.
Hopefully charles will remember this when he goes to St. John, get to the liberal party headquarters and get some flyers and get to those people in that riding.
If Lord gets smoked then it will get interesting, as I think he'd see the writing on the wall and get out. Anybody who things these things are one guys moves will be quickly disappointed.
I have said this to Mr.lord many times ,The Truth Shall Set You Free,,From office that is!
Right back to private live were you belong.Out of site and out of mind.
WOW! As a few have said it is just a poll and the only poll that counts is the one Monday. It was an NDP riding for a long time and a Liberal one before that so the Tories had an uphill climb but they had someone who appeared to be a decent candidate. Still...10%? That's bad, bad, bad. I figured it would be close. If it's not even close, Lord and the PC's have some serious work to do before the next general election if they want to get a third term. First up, know your riding. SJ Harbour is a fairly poor, urban riding. Don't campaign there like it's rural NB or Dieppe. Well I'll have more to say after Monday night. Let's see how close this poll is to the truth. 10%? WOW!
Bernie is finished. No third term. He is going to be termed out.
I would be surprised if it turns out this way that Lord would run again. McKenna saw his numbers continuously drop and got out before he got embarassed and everyone discovered that his economic 'miracle' was just hype.
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings!
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